RE: [Philmont]: 2006 Waiting List Status

> From: Jeffrey W. Knoll
> > You may be right, Jeff, I don't really know, but I am pretty sure
> > that the 1482 on the wait list that Philmont is reporting this year
> > is not significantly different than the number they usually have
> > on the waitlist. If so, then I'm not seeing the connection.
>
> I don't know... does everyone who fails to get a slot
> automatically get put
> on the wait list? My assumption was that some people didn't
> want to be
> bothered, especially at an unrealistic position, or that
> Philmont cut it off
> at some point. At least that's was my impression about the
> phone-in system.
>
Fair point, though I'm not sure where in the process Philmont
learns this prior to assigning the waitlist spots. I don't
recall anything on the lottery entry that said "I don't want
to be waitlisted." Do you? I rather got the impression it
was you got a trek, or you got waitlisted. I've never heard
from anyone who said they were told they were so far down they
didn't even get put on the list. Anything buzz your
recollection of the process to the contrary?

In the phone in system, if you were pretty savvy and
didn't manage to get in during the first hour, you knew you
would be so far down the wait list you didn't bother. So I would
think there would have been MORE, not LESS, who wanted a spot
but didn't get as far as the waitlist under the old phone in.
Now, you enter the lottery if you are interested, end of story.

There may be something in your statement that the refund policy
has changed, though, to be honest, I had thought that was the
policy for our troop trek in 2003, you can get reimbursed if
someone takes your slot. In any case, even if it is a new
policy, I'm not sure enough folks know about it to be a factor.

I suppose the bottom line is there are probably a lot of factors.
Some things we do know. 2005 was a jambo year, and the numbers
tracked very closely with 2001, another jambo year. 2005 was
the first lottery year. Somewhere around 1500 is what we usually
hear on this mailing list is the number on the waitlist. So far,
the only "anomoly" year we've discussed here is 2006, so far as
how deep on the wait list we go. I'd say we don't quite have
a statistical sample to truly draw a conclusion.

It is also a possible factor that the lottery system is lowering
the commitment level on the waitlist as well as the treks awarded
list. Under the phone in system,
the ones who did their homework, were really committed to getting
a slot and thought about how to "work" the phone in system, could
significantly improve their chances of getting a slot. Thus, the
ones who REALLY are committed to go to Philmont tended to already
have a slot, or be VERY low on the wait list, and did not drop out.
Now, with a truly random process, units that weren't committed enough
to "work" the phone procedures, who just threw in the lottery
entry, faced with now making the $ commitment drop out, when in the
past they'd never have gotten into that position in the first place.
2007 is the first year EVER that our troop failed to get a trek. We
worked the phone in system and managed every time under that system.

Hmm, I'm beginning to convince myself that may well be a very
strong factor. Yes, we do know that some units, even with the
commitment factor, still couldn't get a trek, but I think we
should be talking in terms of tendency not absolute.

Another potential factor not mentioned is HH. It may be that a lot
more waitlist crews are taking the HH option rather than holding out
for Philmont.

Regards
Don Roberts
03, 05

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Received on Tue Feb 14 12:12:36 2006