[philmont] Waiting List Expectations

I cannot speak on Double H. Re the waiting list, here are comments I
made on January 17th and 18th, slightly edited (the Ranch's comments
were sent to me on January 16th and 17th). In this case, the Crew was
#231 for 2009, so in similar circumstances to your own.

I went ahead and contacted the Ranch concerning the current waiting
list. Here are their responses, plus some comments of my own:

2008: (Ranch to) Bob: So far we've contacted 55 groups on the wait
list for 2008.

2007 (for 2009): (Ranch to) Bob: Based on previous years'
cancellation, we give the 1st 100 units on the wait list some hope - but
beyond that it is slim to none. There have been some years - like on
Jambo years - when we do go into the 200's but that isn't often. I
would recommend that anyone beyond 150 not hold back from making other
plans.

My Comments: In my opinion, the 2007 (for 2009) comments above are
based on the pre-web-lottery. Last year, we were #147 and received our
slots on November 14th. My recollection, which I will not swear by, is
that the Ranch stopped calling people in late February or early March,
and were around #500 on the Wait List at that point. However, this is
"factual but not actual," because they were only calling the Crews who
had sent in the post-card giving very late dates to be called. Someone
I know, associated with the Ranch but not employed there last year, told
me that it was routine for the Ranch to be making 10 and 20 Crew jumps
on the waiting list in February and March, because most of the Crews
past about #150 told the Ranch not to bother at all, or not to bother
after a much earlier date.

The expiration date on these comments expired when I hit the Send key;
you may take whatever comfort (or distress) you like from them.

- Dr. Bob

...and the following clarifications were made on January 18th:

Some additional comments of the current waiting list, and the realistic
possibilities. As I noted, we were #147 on the 2007 waiting list, and
got called on November 14th, 2006. For 2008, they just made #55 and
it's already past mid-January of 2008. That's a pretty glaring
difference. Obviously the list is going a lot slower this year. Who
knows why? - maybe there are fewer Crews doing frivolous signups on the
web, or maybe there were an unusually large number of Crews that were
auto-accepted under the 4-year waiting list exception (so fewer slots
available to start with). But regardless of the cause, #231 would
clearly be a long shot this year. Maybe #231 will be easier in 2009,
but of course there will be no way to know that until around
Thanksgiving, 2008.

Best of Luck to You.

- Dr. Bob

Bernhardt Bruce-RYXF50 wrote:
> Our troop is number 201 on the waiting list for Philmont in 2009. Does
> anyone have any insight into the odds of this number getting a slot with
> this number? Some of our troop leaders want to bag it and get an
> assured spot at Double-H. I would appreciate any comments comparing
> Philmont to Double-H. Is there been anyone who has recently attended
> both and would like to comment on the relative experience?
> Sincerely,
> Bruce Bernhardt
> Wauconda Troop 90
>

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Received on Mon Feb 25 05:34:34 2008