RE: [Philmont]: Re: New Reservation System

I would suggest a weighted method, per day, based on the last time your
troop won crews (not attended Philmont, BTW). It could be linear or
logarithmic, I'm NOT a statistician, but I think logarithmic is probably
best. By day because then you could distribute the waiting list out to the
days troops would actually want to participate, instead of piling everyone
up into one enormous pool. While it doesn't change the number of troops
that don't make the cut, it does give people better chances to make it from
the waiting list if they choose to try for a "bad date' like after the first
few days of August.

Also, I would limit, based on Troop size, some number of crews per. I'll
bet BSA has some average percentage of boy scouts that would be eligible for
Philmont (14 on or before Jan 1 of any year) and that could be their limit,
arbitrary as it is. That number could give them some basis for identifying
the maximum number of crews you could request. Does anyone believe troops
are only asking for crews they can fill from their own troop?

Joe T.

I used to be a Bob White.

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-philmont@troop47.com [mailto:owner-philmont@troop47.com] On
Behalf Of Dr. Bob Klein
Sent: Sunday, November 28, 2004 6:21 AM
To: Multiple recipients of list philmont
Subject: Re: [Philmont]: Re: New Reservation System

Mark Johnson wrote:

<Large Snip to Final Line>

> Purely random,
> one-bid per unit is the only system that EVERYONE would agree is fair.

Response:
--------
Not everyone. I for one completely disagree, and I have had plenty of
experience in statistics over the past 25 years. The previous systems were
lousy. However, other than the time savings, this one is no better, and in
fact is even more prone to abuse than the previous iterations. [For obvious
reasons I will not provide details on how to "beat" the system, but I can
assure you it is already being done.] What bothers me more than anything is
that Philmont has had ample suggestions of quite fair selection
methodologies over the past 10 years, including offers to set up said
methodologies for free, and instead they took the lazy man's approach. When
you consider how hard they work at virtually everything else, and how good a
job they do at nearly all elements of Ranch operations, the failure in this
most critical aspect is just mystifying.

- Dr. Bob

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As you gather around this virtual campfire with fellow
Scouts and Scouters, do your best to be trustworthy,
loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient,
cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean and reverent.
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Received on Mon Nov 29 00:26:08 2004